Emergency Services Show - This Week at Stoneleigh

[MarkM_Wales]

I'm not sure if this is posted elsewhere but the Emergency Services Show is on this week 19/20 Nov at Stoneleigh Warwickshire. Entry is free and there is an Emergency Response section.



You can register for admission and find out more info at: www.theemergencyservicesshow2008.com (http://www.theemergencyservicesshow2008.com)

[Tony Ferrari]

I already have my registration sorted and I was hoping to go on Thursday but as I only started my new job today, not sure if I can swing it yet.



And of course I have a nice shiny visitors badge with my old job title on :roll:

[MarkM_Wales]

My Entry Badge arrived today - I'm thinking of going along on Thursday if I can spare the time - anyone else planning on being there?

[Tony Ferrari]

Sadly I have been handed a full diary for this week even though I only started yesterday, so won't be able to make the show after all.



Flu Pandemic Planning meeting tommorrow followed by a table top exercise on Thursday... oh well it beats have nothing to do!

[BobWessex]

I have a Flu pandemic plan somewhere probably too late to dig it out now.

[Tony Ferrari]

Pandemic Flu Plans?



Well so far I have copies of the following flu plans:



The National Plan

The East of England Plan

The Essex Plan

The Essex PCTs Plan

The Hertfordshire Plan

The Hertfordshire PCTs Plan

Epping Forest District Councils Plan



Of course the all say virtually the same thing :mrgreen:

[BobWessex]

Yeap "we're gonna die" "Don't panic" :lol: :lol: :lol:

[robin-baldwin]

Shut up shop

Go home

Tape up all external doors and windows

Drink lots of fluids, preferably alcoholic.



Before you catch the flu

[MarkM_Wales]

Well so far I have copies of the following flu plans:



The National Plan

The East of England Plan

The Essex Plan

The Essex PCTs Plan

The Hertfordshire Plan

The Hertfordshire PCTs Plan

Epping Forest District Councils Plan



I'm glad to see that there is no Flu pandemic planned for Wales! :lol:

[Tony Ferrari]

I think Scrapie is more of a problem in Wales

[Matt Powys]

Does that mean Wales will get to take over the flu-ridden UK? :lol:



More likely is that no Welsh council has bothered to plan for it...

[Tony Ferrari]

Believe me every Cat. 1 Responder in the UK is planning for it, it's just that the Government Guidance seems to assume that anyone involved in the response to Pandemic Flu is immune so will be able to continue their job.



Of course no emergency planner ever gets ill, we don't have children or relatives that get ill, we don't have children whose schools may be closed down and we won't suffer when transport, fuel supplies, food deliveries or even shops stop operating.



Me....cynical?



Actually my personal plan is to find someone with flu as soon as it breaks out, catch the flu off them, be ill for a couple of weeks, hopefully survive and then enjoy the immunity when things get really bad as predicted in weeks six and seven of the outbreak.



Of course if it is a mutant strain of H5N1 Avian Flu that retains its 50% fatality rate, I may just head for the hills....

[Tony Ferrari]

On a more serious note, if anyone is interested in the latest Pandemic Flu Guidance, I have placed a copy in the "LIbrary"



http://www.4x4response.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=336

[Mark Marsh]

Perhaps worth remembering that, although it killed between 20 and 40 million people, the 1918-19 flu pandemic had a mortality rate of 2.5%. That's high by flu standards but the odds are still well on the side of surviving.

[Matt Powys]

It's also worth bearing in mind that living conditions in 1918 were far poorer than they are now for rather more than 2.5% of the population - I suspect many of the victims may well have had long-term health problems from their work or home environment which made them easy targets for flu.

[Tony Ferrari]

Very true as nutrition was poor and we were of course just coming out of the war. Although this did help with the way the epidemic was dealt with. As we were used to dealing with large numbers of casualities and fatalities.



Evidence now points to the majority of deaths in 1918/19 being from bacterial pnemonia. Although it was the flu that created the conditions for the body's own bacteria (from the nose and throat) to infect the lungs, this is because they didn't have antibiotics back then, so pnemonia was an almost certain killer.



Although the 1918/19 Pandemic caused an estimated 40 million excess deaths wordwide, the two subsequent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 caused 2 million and 1 million excess deaths respectively. In both of these antibiotics were used as routine treatments.



Of course many bacteria have become resistant to antibiotics and it is no longer standard practice to prescribe them in these circumsatances. It is also argued that as a society we are less resilient to such disruption. After all, look at the problems caused by the SARS outbreak a few years ago and that only claimed 750 known victims worldwide.

[Mark Marsh]

It is also argued that as a society we are less resilient to such disruption.



Ah, it's just another excuse for the state to exercise more control when we all get bored with terrorism ;)



I bet ID cards will be the cure for flu :)

[Matt Powys]

I think my comments about hysterical media types in relation to the Mountain Marathon coverage are fitting here. They really don't want to see people coping because it doesn't make a good story, result being that people now behave like decapitated free-range fowl because they think that's how you react to a crisis. Our local supermarket invariably sells out of bread in the event of snow for no reason whatsoever beyond people buying more than they would normally and thereby throwing the manager's calculations regarding how much to order out. If they bought normally there would be no problem as fresh supplies invariably make it in within a day or so.



Mind you, there is evidence that despite their habit of interviewing one or two panicking nitwits the vast majority of people just get on with it. :lol:

[BobWessex]

The big problem with supermarkets etc is that they only keep enough stock for two-three days turnover.



This also applies to farms many of whom have animal food delivered every 2 to 3 days.



This works well when the supply chain is working effectively but when proverbial spanners start being added problems can soon accumulate.



It doesn't matter whether it is snow stopping milk and other foodstuffs from being collected from farms ports etc. and the end product being delivered or whether the problems are caused by a shortage of drivers due to illness or strike. The result is the same no food (or anything else) in the shops after a very short period.



I may be pessimistic but I keep eenough food to last me at least two months and know some EPOs who seriously say that they have enough for 6 months, which may indicate a slight state of paranoia or they know something that I don't :roll:

[Tony Ferrari]

Always a dilemma for me as in a previous career, I was a purchaser and lectured in the subject. So for years I have been extolling the virtues of "Just in Time" procurement.



Now I'm an EPO, I am an advocate of stockpiling!



And although I do keep a small emergency stock of food and water in the house, I don't have six months supply.



It is however the great relience on "just in time that will cause us problems today compared with 1918/19. Back then keeping stocks was the norm. And of course everyone was used to storing foodstuffs without the aid of refrigerators but of course without sell by dates either :roll:

[BobWessex]

Sunday night 21:00 BBC1 MIGHT be interesting.

[Tony Ferrari]

Sunday night 21:00 BBC1 MIGHT be interesting.



Yeah, so might be a 90+% fatality rate (the show's premise) in real life :shock:



I'm hoping they have suggested a sensible solution to body disposal, I've spent the day in a room at GO East full of Emergency Planners and we still can't come up with a workable solution that would be acceptable to the public.



Can't see sub-terranean multiple body storage facilities* going down too well



















*that's mass graves to you and me :roll:

[Mark Marsh]

With a 90% fatality rate, the 6 million left in the UK will probably have more important things to worry about than what happens to the dead. In fact, with that kind of fatality rate, I imagine there would be so much panic the public wouldn't want anything to do with the bodies. They probably wouldn't want anything to do with the living either!

[Matt Powys]

Anyone up for a secessionist 4x4 Republic to be set up in the forests of Wales? :lol:

[Tony Ferrari]

With a 90% fatality rate, the 6 million left in the UK will probably have more important things to worry about than what happens to the dead. In fact, with that kind of fatality rate, I imagine there would be so much panic the public wouldn't want anything to do with the bodies. They probably wouldn't want anything to do with the living either!



I think that 54 million bodies would be hard to ignore, especially when they start to rot... not a pleasant thought!

[BobWessex]

Do you remember the similarly named series in the 70s at least 90% mortality but hardly a single dead body seen anywhere.



Anyway this thread has drifted nicely off topic.

[Mark Marsh]

I think that 54 million bodies would be hard to ignore



Exactly. I mean the survivors would just want the dead disposed of. In that situation I think they would accept, possibly even welcome, mass burials. I also doubt they would be too inclined to take to the streets in protest for fear of contracting the flu.



Of course theere probably would be objections if mass burials were proposed in a plan made public now.

[Matt Powys]

There are always some rather macabre details in any emergency plan, usually kept secret to avoid an adverse impact on morale. I think with 54 million they would have to resort to some pretty unpalatable disposal methods which would cause outrage if publicised now.

[BobWessex]

Following on from Mark's comments I do think that it is necessary for those of us who obtain information from the local Emergency planners whether Civil Contigencies, Police etc. to make it available to members unless it is specifically restricted.



It is important that members do understand what the "worse case scenario" might be.



Although this thread started with Pandemic Flu, we could just as easily be attending a plane or train crash with associated fatalities, theoretically we won't deal with fatalities but we could have a member who sees one (or part of one).



For instance at the last SEVAG meeting with Somerset CCU the Police gave us a presentation on terrorism including the damage that could be expected. This is being 'adjusted' to remove anything considered sensitive and will hopefully be available as a PowerPoint presentation, IF I receive this I will add it to the Library.

[Tony Ferrari]

You may be interested to know that the event I attended on Friday was to validate all the Flu plans for the different Local Resilience Forums (Fora?) before they are all published in full in the public domain.



The Civil Contingencies Secretariat has made it clear that the only thing we can leave out is personal contact details, everything else including plans for dealing with excess deaths and body storage has to be included.



I'm sure it will get interesting when the likes of the Daily Mail get hold of it.

[BobWessex]

The trouble is that they will scare monger with "worse case scenarios" when the truth (as I understand it) is that nobody really know how bad it will be when it hits.



Avian flu seems to have dropped off the radar in the last 12 months with no reported bird or human deaths that I can recall for many months.

[Mark Marsh]

Avian flu has dropped off the public and media radar recently; probably a good thing because the media tend to sensationalise and stir up panic (similarities here with this weekend's weather and the OMM). However in the last few months I have attended two training sessions attended by Kent County Council EPOs where it has been stated that the number one threat to UK PLC is a global [avian flu] pandemic. Tony will no doubt be able to confirm if this is a widely held view or just Kent's.



Following on from Bob's comment about preparing team members for the worst; one of the training events I attended was 'Project Argus', a National Counter Terrorism Security Office event. Although aimed at businesses, this was an interesting exercise based on a multi-media simulated terrorist attack. Quite a bit of emphasis was placed on preparing people for the kind of casualties to expect from a bomb. If anyone gets the chance to attend (it makes for an interesting half day) you will want to go back to work and ask if your company has a terrorism plan.

[BobWessex]

Following on from Bob's comment about preparing team members for the worst; one of the training events I attended was 'Project Argus', a National Counter Terrorism Security Office event. Although aimed at businesses, this was an interesting exercise based on a multi-media simulated terrorist attack. Quite a bit of emphasis was placed on preparing people for the kind of casualties to expect from a bomb. If anyone gets the chance to attend (it makes for an interesting half day) you will want to go back to work and ask if your company has a terrorism plan.





Hmmm now if I was cynical I might wonder if it was a coincidence that Avon & Somerset Anti-Terrorism dept did a presentation on the same subject.



These things have a habit of being briefed at roughly the same time.

[Tony Ferrari]

Bob



The reason you were briefed at the same time is that Project Argus is a national project, originally piloted by the Met and now being rolled out across other forces.



Mark



Pandemic Flu (which doesn't have to be Avian Flu) is still on the agenda. In the National Rsk register, it features higher than flooding, even after the last two summers.



It is worth knowing the difference between the different kinds of flu as many people, including in the NHS, I have discovered this week, don't know.



Pandemic Avian Flu - An influenzu spread amongst birds (H5N1 strain), can be passed to Humans but only by very close contact. No strong evidence as yet of any ability to pass from human to human. Which is good as the fatality rate is 50%. As it is spread easily bird to bird and is worldwide, it is considered to be pandemic.



Seasonal Flu - what tends to occur each Winter, easy human to human contact can be various different strains, the flu jabs given are usually based on the three most common strains in any one year. This is because the virus strains are known and vaccines exist for them.



Pandemic Human Flu - When a new strain of flu emerges that has not been identified before and can pass easily from human to human. No vaccines exist so impossible to stop spreading, which it is likely to do worldwide.



The problem is that Flu mutates very easily and every new strain needs a new vaccine that can take about 6 months to develop.



The reason Avian flu is considered a risk, is because the last three human flu pandemics (1918, 1957 and 1968) have come from bird flu strains. The most likely scenario is that someone with seasonal flu then catches avaian flu. The two viruses then combine in the body into a new form that is transmissable between humans, with a high fatality rate.



As to dealing with worst case scenarios, this is because we work by the maxim:



"Plan for the worst, hope for the best"



The three "National Planning Assumptions" we are currently working on are not surprisingly based on previous experience; worst case is 1918 figures (40m dead worldwide), medium is 1957 (2m deaths) and best case is 1968 figures (1m deaths).



Lots more information here if you are interested



http://www.ukresilience.gov.uk/pandemicflu.aspx



http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publichealth/Fl ... /index.htm (http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publichealth/Flu/PandemicFlu/index.htm)

[Mark Marsh]

Thanks for that Tony, very interesting :)



It does make the cynic in me ask, if a pandemic is the #1 threat, why so many more resources are (apparently) devoted to counter terrorism?



I suppose its due to a calculation of impacts and likelyhood. While a pandemic will have a greater impact (more casualties), a terrorist attack is more likely.

[Tony Ferrari]

You hit the nail on the head!



The Risk Register is all about likelyhood versus impact, or the version I like....



Will it happen? v Will it hurt?

[Tony Ferrari]

So who watched the Flu Pandemic "training film" last night?



I now want a 2.4 TDCI Defender.... I certainly can't spin the wheels like that in my ancient turbo diesel :mrgreen:

[BobWessex]

I'm old enough to remember the original series in the seventies which I seem to recall as being very similar.

[Mark Marsh]

The Risk Register



That's the thing, I couldn't remember what it was called :)

[Tony Ferrari]

I'm old enough to remember the original series in the seventies which I seem to recall as being very similar.



That's because it's not a new series but a remake of the 1970's series, both being based on the book by Terry Nation, who was the writer of Doctor Who for many years.



In fact some of the characters are exactly the same as in the original. Can't remember who but that's what it said in the paper on Sunday :mrgreen:

[BobWessex]

I thought the names were familiar :shock: :shock:

[Matt Powys]

Can we just train for Daleks, Cybermen, 'orrible things coming through the Rift in Cardiff and/or zombies? They're not as scary as the real stuff! :lol:

[BobWessex]

That's called "REAL EMERGENCY!" planning :D :) :D

[Matt Powys]

Excellent, when do we start negotiating with Torchwood and UNIT? :lol:

[Jim Wallace]

Do they make a 4x4 Tardis then :lol:

[BobWessex]

Well it does "go anywhere" :lol